Here is a review of the predictions I made for 2019. 4 out of 19 predictions came through equating to a score of 21%! Some of these predictions were really close. I’m aiming to reach 50% for 2020! More in an upcoming post.
1. Snapchat goes bankrupt or to be acquired by a non Big Tech company (i.e. not Facebook, Apple, Google, Netflix or Amazon)
FALSE - Snapchat started the year at $5.68 USD per share and ended up at $16.78 USD per share. This turnaround yielded a 187.5 % increase for shareholders!
2. Tesla to go bankrupt by end of 2019
FALSE - this looked like it could happen, given 1) missed deliveries and 2) some red flags were highlighted by David Einhorn. The stock reached a low of $178 in H2 but rallied to the infamous $420 dollars per share in late 2019. Tesla lives to fight another day.
3. 2019 will be the hottest year on record
FALSE? - 2019 tied for second place with 2016. Full year temperatures are not consolidated yet so this one could (unfortunately) come true.
4. GE files for bankruptcy
FALSE - In August of this year, a forensic accountant who flagged Bernnie Madoff, published a report (funded by a hedge fund) highlighting financial irregularities at the conglomerate. The share price increased by 38% approximately.
5. At least three high profile cryptocurrency startups go bankrupt
6. Brexit: Parity between Euro and Pound during the year (€1 = £1)
FALSE - August 10th, Sterling went to 94 pence for 1 euro. Close!
7. Dogecoin reaches $1
FALSE - I was WAY off.
8. The Saints win the superbowl
FALSE - So close, but the Saints were robbed in the playoffs.
9. Liverpool win the Premier League
FALSE - In a season that was unprecedented in the Premier League, Liverpool finished second (97 points) behind Manchester City (98 points).
10. Manchester City vs. Liverpool in the Champions League Final
FALSE - but Liverpool did appear in it and WIN.
11. Mark Zuckerberg stands down as chairman of Facebook
FALSE - although he increased his wealth by 27 billion dollars!
12. France & USA get new presidents
FALSE - but both presidents are unpopular today.
13. Venture capital investments are lower than 2018 as startups shun venture capital funds
? - WeWork will not have been a good story. Final numbers not released yet.
14. Airbnb files for IPO
FALSE - it’s going to happen in 2020. The WeWork IPO disaster probably put the brakes on Airbnb’s IPO.
15. S&P 500 gives a return of at least 25%
16. Price of Brent crude oil averages $50 per barrel
TRUE - average price at closing was $64.23
17. Amazon acquires an autonomous vehicle startup
FALSE - but close! Amazon invested $700 million in Rivian
18. At least three US companies suffer cybersecurity breaches resulting in data losses
19. Netflix is subject of a takeover bid
FALSE - but somebody missed the party. Netflix gained +4000% in the past decade!
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